Welcome to the last trading day of 2024! Today’s trading environment is calm as markets prepare to close for the year, with limited data releases and reduced activity across the board. The Chinese economy delivered a mixed report early in the session, with manufacturing PMIs meeting expectations and non-manufacturing PMIs surprising positively at 52.2. Let’s examine today’s developments while reflecting on a remarkable year across markets.
Global indices are attempting a rebound today after a sharp decline yesterday, though the overall sentiment remains cautious. The NASDAQ and S&P 500, despite this week's setbacks, are poised to end the year with impressive double-digit gains of over 20%. European markets tell a more nuanced story, with the DAX delivering strong performance at +18% for the year, while the French CAC 40 closes 2024 in negative territory, down 3%. The end of the year brings hopes for a Santa rally, but so far, the expected bullish momentum has been elusive.
On the currency front, the Japanese yen and British pound are leading today’s gains, while the Canadian and New Zealand dollars struggle. For the year, the American dollar emerged as the strongest performer, bolstered by a hawkish Federal Reserve. In contrast, the yen, along with the antipodean currencies, has faced significant pressure, marking 2024 as a challenging year for these assets.
The commodities market has been a tale of divergence. Oil is attempting to climb higher today but remains slightly down year-to-date after a volatile year. Gold and silver, however, have shone brightly, with annual gains exceeding 20%. Cocoa takes the title of the best-performing commodity of 2024, with an extraordinary 160% surge, while soybeans and iron ore close the year as the weakest, each losing over 20%.
As we reflect on the year, 2024 has been marked by significant strength in US equities, persistent dollar dominance, and extraordinary performances in select commodities. The markets now look ahead to 2025, carrying both the lessons and opportunities of the past twelve months.