Hello traders and welcome to a brand-new trading week. Monday starts with a wave of optimism sweeping across the markets, fueled by fresh developments in the ongoing trade war. After a turbulent couple of weeks, investors are finding some relief in the latest update: over the weekend, former President Donald Trump announced proposed temporary exemptions on US tariffs, specifically for smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices and components. While these exemptions are not permanent, the news was enough to spark a broad-based rally and set a positive tone as we begin the week.
Global futures are rallying in response to this policy shift. European indices are opening with strong gains—futures in Europe are up over 2%, while US futures are currently climbing around 1%, showing that risk appetite is returning across the board. This rebound follows last week’s volatility and shows just how sensitive markets remain to any updates in the tariff saga.
On the currency front, we are also seeing a classic risk-on move. Safe haven currencies like the Swiss franc and US dollar are weakening, while emerging market currencies are finding buyers. This kind of movement confirms that traders are rotating back into higher-yielding and riskier assets after weeks of defensive posturing.
Commodities are climbing as well. Precious metals, led by gold and silver, are trading higher despite the risk-on tone. Silver, in particular, is showing stronger momentum, extending last week’s gains. Oil is also pushing higher, continuing its recovery after Thursday’s correction. The resilience across the commodity space suggests that investors are still positioning cautiously, even if today’s headline sentiment is positive.
As for the macro calendar, Monday is mostly empty. We won’t get any Tier 1 data releases today, and traders are instead likely to focus on digesting the tariff news and watching how US markets open and perform later in the day. The first real economic catalyst of the week will come on Tuesday, when we’re set to receive Claimant Count Change from the UK, followed by inflation data from Canada.
So to sum it up: optimism is back—at least for now. The key question is whether this move has legs or if it's just a short-term relief rally. We’ll know more once Wall Street joins the game later today.