Hello traders, and welcome to Tuesday! We begin with a significant update from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which kept interest rates unchanged at 4.35%, aligning with expectations. Their statement highlighted notable points: inflation has dropped considerably since 2022, labor market conditions have eased, and the economic outlook remains uncertain. The Australian dollar has strengthened, reflecting a hawkish interpretation by the market.
Key data from the U.S. includes retail sales and industrial production, both expected at 0.3%. These reports will be crucial in shaping the market's direction, particularly for the dollar. Currently, the Australian dollar leads in strength, while the New Zealand dollar is the weakest, which is interesting given their usual correlation. Emerging market currencies from Hungary, Czechia, and Poland gained yesterday, while the Japanese yen saw notable losses.
The oil market saw a significant bullish move, breaking a mid-term downtrend line, despite a small correction today. Indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are climbing to new highs, although the DAX lags slightly. As we await the U.S. retail sales data, the market's reaction will be pivotal, especially for the dollar. Stay tuned for further developments!