Hello traders, and welcome to Friday morning. The European session is underway, and markets are digesting key data published earlier today. Let’s dive into what happened on Thursday and what’s shaping the markets so far this morning.
Yesterday was a mixed bag for the markets. U.S. retail sales came in weaker than expected at 0.4% compared to the forecasted 0.6%, adding further pressure to the U.S. dollar. While the immediate reaction on the currency markets was volatile, the dollar managed to hold onto its strength throughout the day, reflecting safe-haven flows.
On the other side of the globe, job data from Australia painted a far more optimistic picture. Employment change surged to 56,000, far exceeding expectations of 14,000, signaling a robust recovery in the Australian labor market. However, despite this strong data, the Australian dollar failed to capitalize and remained under pressure.
European indices continued their strong performance, with the DAX edging closer to its all-time highs, buoyed by a positive sentiment across the region. American futures, however, were less enthusiastic, showing signs of caution after the recent rally.
This morning, the focus shifted to retail sales from the UK, which were published early in the European session. The data disappointed, showing a decline of -0.3% compared to the expected 0.4%. This marks another blow to the British pound, which remains the weakest currency of 2025 so far. The pound briefly dipped to new lows before stabilizing slightly, as traders digest the implications of this data.
The UK’s underwhelming retail sales add to a string of disappointing economic reports this week, solidifying its position as the underperformer in the currency markets. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc continue to gain strength, reflecting the ongoing demand for safe-haven assets.
Indices in Europe are still holding their ground near recent highs. The FTSE 100 and DAX are attempting to sustain their bullish momentum despite the mixed sentiment surrounding global markets. In the U.S., futures are signaling a cautious start, with traders awaiting the next catalyst to confirm direction.
On the commodities front, oil remains a standout performer, climbing 10% year-to-date, though it is facing a slight pullback this morning. Precious metals are mixed—silver and gold are struggling, while platinum is showing modest gains.