Good morning on this eventful Thursday! Let's dive right into the macro calendar. Today is packed with crucial data, starting with GDP from the US, which is expected to be around 2%. Additionally, durable goods orders are anticipated to show a 0.3% increase. The day will wrap up with a significant speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Yesterday, the PMI data presented a mixed bag: Eurozone figures fell short, while US services PMI exceeded expectations but manufacturing disappointed.
On the currency front, safe havens are dominating. The Japanese yen has surged significantly, joined by the Swiss franc and US dollar. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is under heavy pressure, plummeting alongside the New Zealand dollar. An interesting divergence is unfolding in the safe haven category: while the yen and franc are gaining strength, gold and silver are experiencing steep declines, particularly with gold taking a notable hit during the Asian session.
Indices are facing a tough time as well. Yesterday saw substantial drops across major indices, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and French CAC all breaking critical support levels, signaling a potential deeper correction. This bearish trend is likely to continue, given the current sentiment. European indices are struggling to find footing, and the ongoing correction in the US market is casting a shadow over global indices.
In the commodities market, the outlook remains bleak. Oil prices are falling, adding to the woes of commodity currencies. Gold and silver are also struggling, with both precious metals experiencing sharp declines. Despite IBM’s better-than-expected earnings pushing its stock up 3% in after-hours trading, the overall market sentiment remains cautious. Today’s earnings from AstraZeneca and Total Energies will be closely watched for further market direction.