Hello traders, and welcome to Thursday’s trading session—one that’s shaping up to be quite eventful.
Let’s start with the macro calendar. We’ve already had some notable releases. Inflation from New Zealand surprised to the upside, yet curiously, the New Zealand dollar is not benefiting from the data, showing signs of investor caution or profit-taking. Over in Australia, job data came in mixed—employment change was lower than forecast, while the unemployment rate actually dropped. Despite this, the Australian dollar is reacting negatively, suggesting the market is more focused on the weaker employment growth.
The main event of the day is still ahead: the ECB interest rate decision. A 25 basis point rate cut is expected, and that’s likely to drive heightened volatility on the euro. As of the early European session, the euro is flat, though it remains slightly positive on the week.
On the broader forex market, we’re seeing strength in the British pound, U.S. dollar, and Canadian dollar, while safe havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are under pressure—a sign that risk sentiment may be shifting, at least in the short term.
Turning to indices, the picture is mixed. Yesterday saw a notable drop in U.S. equities, suggesting that the recent bullish correction may be losing steam. However, American futures are ticking higher this morning, hinting at a modest recovery attempt. In contrast, European markets are more resilient, with the DAX hovering near local highs. For now, sentiment on equities remains fragile, and today could be pivotal.
In commodities, gold continues to shine, pushing higher and extending its dominance in 2025. Other metals are more muted—silver is undergoing a deeper correction, and copper, palladium, and platinum are each down around 1% on the day.
As for energy, Brent crude oil is maintaining its bullish trajectory. The price broke above a key resistance at $66.20 per barrel, clearing the way for a potential move toward the next major resistance at $69, a level that has held significance throughout the year.
In summary, all eyes today are on the ECB rate decision, which will set the tone for the euro. Meanwhile, traders are watching closely to determine whether the recent bullish correction on indices is truly over, or if we’re just seeing temporary profit-taking.