Today’s market action was driven largely by US retail sales data, which came in below expectations at 0.4% instead of the anticipated 0.6%. The initial reaction was choppy, with a whipsaw movement seen on the charts, but after half an hour, the US dollar started to lose ground against its peers.
In addition to the US data, we also had GDP figures from the UK, which were disappointing at 0.1%, missing expectations and further pressuring the British pound, now the weakest currency in the market. Overnight, Australian job data showed a greater-than-expected increase in employment, but surprisingly, this strength has not translated into gains for the Australian dollar, which remains on the weaker side of the market.
Currency Market
The standout performers today are the safe-haven currencies, including the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, which are showing notable strength. While the US dollar initially gained before the data release, the weak retail sales report has started to erode those gains. The British pound is clearly struggling after the GDP miss, reinforcing its position as the weakest currency of 2025 so far.
Indices
Positive sentiment continues to dominate the indices. The DAX reached all-time highs, and overall, the long-term outlook remains bullish. Investors are showing resilience and optimism, even in the face of weaker economic data, with European and US indices pushing higher.
Commodities
The commodities market remains upbeat. Oil, while experiencing a small correction today, continues its remarkable performance with a 10% year-to-date gain in 2025. Metals like gold and silver are also climbing higher, adding to the positive sentiment on commodities overall.
Conclusion
While disappointing retail sales data from the US and weak UK GDP figures introduced some volatility, the market remains buoyed by positive sentiment in indices and commodities. Safe havens are shining, while the British pound and Australian dollar are lagging. As we move forward, all eyes will remain on how these trends evolve in the days to come.