In today's analysis, let's focus on the American dollar to Swiss franc (USD/CHF) pair, which is expected to be heavily influenced by the U.S. retail sales data. This pair has been respecting key technical levels recently, making it an intriguing subject for traders.
Since the end of December, USD/CHF has been in an uptrend, which saw a bearish correction beginning in early May. This correction is closely following the Fibonacci retracement levels, with the 23.6% level currently acting as resistance and the 38.2% level as support. Today, the price is bouncing off the 38.2% support, trading above it, which provides some hope for buyers. As long as the price stays above this level, the sentiment remains positive, with a potential target at the 23.6% resistance.
However, if the price breaks below the 38.2% level and closes today under it, this will signal a sell, with the next target likely being the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The U.S. retail sales data will play a crucial role in determining the direction of USD/CHF today. Traders should watch this data closely as it will have a significant impact on the American dollar.