Wedge Pattern Break Gives GBP/CHF Bulls Hope

Since the middle of 2023, GBP/CHF has been on a downtrend, tracing its path within the confines of a descending wedge pattern, delineated by black lines on the chart. This technical formation, typically known for its converging trendlines, hints at a compression of volatility and a potential reversal or continuation of the trend at its culmination.

A key feature of the chart is a critical horizontal resistance level at 1.108, colored in green. Initially acting as a support, this level has since transformed into a formidable barrier, capping the pair's upward ambitions.

However, January heralded a change in fortune for GBP/CHF, particularly noticeable in the first half of the month, which was characterized by a predominantly bullish sentiment. This shift was initiated by a robust bounce off the lower boundary of the wedge, propelling the pair into a series of gains.

February continues this positive momentum, with the pair extending its climb. Notably, yesterday marked a significant development as the price punctured the upper boundary of the wedge. This breakout represents a preliminary positive signal, indicating potential for upward movement.

Yet, caution remains the watchword, as a "full-fledged" buy signal has not been established. The presence of the pair beneath the green resistance adds a layer of complexity to the bullish narrative. A decisive breach above this resistance would unequivocally signal a robust opportunity to go long, heralding a potential shift in the pair's directional bias towards sustained upward movement.

Conversely, should the pair recoil from the green resistance, retreating back within the wedge's bounds, it would suggest that the bullish impetus lacks the strength to overturn the prevailing trend. Such a scenario would be interpreted as a bearish signal, prompting considerations for sell positions, with the expectation that the downtrend may resume or at least that the pair will continue to struggle to find upward traction.