Many investors entered the weekend concerned about the possibility of a "Black Monday" scenario—and it seems those fears weren’t entirely unfounded. The global markets are opening sharply lower this morning, with Asian indices leading the collapse. Notably, the Hang Seng futures are down 10%, setting a grim tone for the start of the week.
Ahead of the European session, futures are deep in the red, falling between 2% and 4% globally. Currently, NASDAQ is down 4%, S&P 500 by 3%, and Germany’s DAX also off by around 4%. That said, after an initial bearish gap and steep drop, we are starting to see a modest recovery attempt as the Asian session closes and Europe gets ready to open.
From a fundamental perspective, the macro calendar is empty today, but all eyes remain on the escalating trade war. Over the weekend, China retaliated with a 34% tariff on American goods, following the sweeping tariffs imposed by the U.S. President Donald Trump, who made it clear he won’t accept a China deal unless the trade deficit is addressed. The geopolitical environment is now highly uncertain, and predicting the direction of these trade tensions is nearly impossible.
Technically, major indices are now testing long-term supports. A breakdown here could be devastating and trigger further selling. However, there is a possibility that some investors will see this panic-driven sell-off as a buying opportunity, seeking value in deeply discounted assets.
On the commodities front, the energy market is under pressure. Oil continues its sharp decline and is now down 15% year-to-date in 2025. In the precious metals space, we’re seeing mixed signals. Gold, as a safe haven, remains somewhat resilient, although it's not immune to the volatility. Meanwhile, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium are heavily impacted by the trade tensions, each down over 10% in the past week.
On the currency market, we’re witnessing a classic risk-off sentiment. Safe havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are surging, while other major currencies struggle to find footing. It’s clear that these two are currently the primary beneficiaries of the global uncertainty.
So, while there are no major economic releases on the docket today, the market remains focused on the evolving trade war narrative. Watch for any statements from key policymakers, which could either fan the flames or provide relief. The big question now is: Will this sell-off deepen, or will bargain hunters step in to stabilize sentiment?