Weekly Market Commentary | 03.06 – 07.06

Monday

• Final Manufacturing PMIs from the US: Expected at 50.9, indicating slight expansion in the manufacturing sector.

• ISM Manufacturing PMIs: Anticipated slightly below 50 at 49.8, signaling a potential contraction.

Tuesday

• Swiss Inflation Data: Expected at 0.4%, providing insights into the inflationary pressures in Switzerland.

• JOLTS Job Openings: Forecasted at 8.4 million, offering a snapshot of the labor market demand in the US.

Wednesday

• Australia GDP: Expected at 0.2%, reflecting the economic growth in Australia.

• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: A key indicator of private sector job creation in the US.

• Bank of Canada Rate Decision: A rate cut from 5.5% to 4.75% is anticipated.

• ISM Services PMIs: Expected to provide further insights into the US service sector's health.

Thursday

• UK Construction PMI: Expected at 52.5, indicating expansion in the construction sector.

• ECB Rate Decision: Another anticipated rate cut from 4.5% to 4.25%.

• US Unemployment Claims: Weekly indicator of labor market health.

• Ivey PMI from Canada: Expected at 65.2, reflecting business conditions in Canada.

Friday

• US Non-Farm Payrolls: The highlight of the week, expected at 185K, providing critical insights into the US labor market.

• Canada Job Data: Offering a comprehensive look at employment trends in Canada.

Setups for This Week:

USD/CHF 

Primary View:

• The price is currently correcting, but we are still defending the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

• As long as we stay above this level, there is potential for a buy signal with the target set on the green resistance.

Alternative View:

• If the price breaks below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, it will be a bearish sign, with the next target at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which seems like the next legitimate support.

GBP/CHF 

Primary View:

• The price is currently battling two key supports. The first is a horizontal support marked in orange, which is being tested.

• Below this, we have a green long-term uptrend line. As long as the price stays above this line, the buy signal remains valid.

Alternative View:

• If the price breaks below the green uptrend line, it will signal a sell, indicating further downside potential.

Cocoa 

Primary View:

• The price has escaped from a wedge pattern marked with blue lines and resumed its uptrend.

• We are now seeing a flag formation marked with red lines. A breakout to the upside from this flag will be a strong buy signal.

Alternative View:

• Should the price break below the lower line of the flag and subsequently the yellow uptrend line, it will indicate a sell signal, suggesting a potential reversal.