Weekly Market Commentary | 17.02 - 23.02

Monday: 

• U.S. and Canadian markets closed for President’s Day, resulting in lower liquidity and reduced volatility.

• No major data releases on the calendar.

Tuesday:

• Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision, with a 25-basis point cut expected, bringing rates down to 4.1%.

• UK labor market data with claimant count change expected at 10,000.

• Speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, potentially offering insights into future monetary policy.

• Canada’s inflation (CPI) release, expected at 0%.

• Speech from former U.S. President Donald Trump, which could drive market volatility.

Wednesday: 

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision, with a 50-basis point cut expected, signaling further monetary easing.

• UK inflation data, expected at 2.8%, a key indicator for the Bank of England’s next policy moves.

Thursday: 

• Australia’s unemployment rate, expected to rise to 4.1%, providing further insight into economic conditions.

• U.S. weekly jobless claims, forecasted at 214,000, a crucial indicator of labor market strength.

Friday: 

• UK retail sales, expected at 0.3%, providing clues about consumer demand.

• Flash PMI releases from France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S., offering a real-time snapshot of economic activity.

• Canada’s retail sales report, adding further direction for the Canadian dollar and market sentiment.

Setups for This Week:

Dow Jones (DJI)

Primary View:

• The price is close to the all-time high, marked in red.

• The index is trading inside a short-term pennant, and a breakout to the upside will confirm a bullish trend and buy signal.

Alternative View:

• A break below the lower line of the pennant (orange line) would trigger a short-term sell signal.

GBP/USD

Primary View:

• The price has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, marked in green on the daily chart.

• Since the price is above the neckline, the buy signal is active.

Alternative View:

• A drop back below the orange neckline would indicate a failed breakout and a sell signal.

USD/NOK

Primary View:

• The price has developed a head and shoulders pattern, marked in green.

• Since the price is below the orange neckline, this confirms a sell signal.

Alternative View:

• A move back above the orange resistance would signal a bullish reversal and a buy opportunity.