Weekly Market Commentary | 06.01 - 12.01

Monday 

Mondays are often laid-back, and this one is no exception. However, we do have a couple of numbers worth watching:

• German prelim CPI: Inflation from Germany is expected to land at 0.3%. Always an important one for the euro.

• US Final Services PMIs: Expected to stay strong at 58.5%.

Tuesday 

Tuesday is all about inflation, with key data from Switzerland and the Eurozone setting the tone. Also, we’ll keep an eye on some important US numbers:

• Swiss CPI: Expected at -0.1%. Will this bring volatility to the Swiss franc?

• Eurozone CPI flash estimate: Forecast at 2.4%. Can inflation hold steady or surprise to the downside?

• US ISM Services PMIs: Anticipated at 53.2, showing how well the service sector is holding up.

• US JOLTS job openings: Expected to hit 7.77 million. A key insight into the US labor market.

Wednesday 

Get ready for a jam-packed day filled with major releases:

• Australian CPI: Forecast at 2.2%, a critical piece for Aussie traders.

• ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Expected to rise by 131,000, giving us a preview of Friday’s payrolls.

• US Unemployment Claims: A midweek twist with claims expected at 210,000.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes: The big one for the day. Markets will be dissecting this for any clues about the Fed’s next moves.

Thursday  

Thursday calms things down slightly but still offers key insights from Australia and China:

• Australia Retail Sales: Expected at 1%. A solid number could boost the Aussie.

• China CPI: Forecast at 0.1%. Will it confirm deflationary trends or surprise to the upside?

Friday 

The first week of the year ends with a bang as labor market data takes center stage:

• US Non-Farm Payrolls: Expected at 154,000, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. Always a big market mover.

• Canada Employment Change: Forecast at 24,500. Can the loonie get a boost from solid jobs data?

Setups for This Week:

Silver

Primary View

• The price starts the new week trading within a well-defined rectangle pattern, characterized by precise horizontal resistance and support.

• A breakout above the resistance will generate a clear buy signal.

Alternative View

• A breakout below the support will provide a strong sell signal.

NZDCAD

Primary View

• The pair remains in a downtrend, but there is an attempt to break higher. The initial breakout attempt was rejected, marked by a pullback (blue area).

• This rejection suggests a potential false breakout, favoring continuation of the downtrend.

Alternative View

• Should the price successfully break above the black trendline resistance, it will signal a buy opportunity, with a target set on the orange resistance level.

USDCAD

Primary View

• The price trades within a rectangle pattern near its peak, with a fresh bounce off the resistance to start the week. The target for now is the horizontal support below.

• The pattern suggests consolidation, with a bearish tilt unless broken.

Alternative View

• A breakout above the rectangle's resistance will provide a signal to go long, targeting new highs.