Weekly Market Commentary | 07.10 - 13.10

Monday:

• A quiet start to the week with no Tier 1 data, so expect the markets to be calm as traders ease into the week.

Tuesday:

• Still a relatively quiet day. The highlight will be the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from Australia. Traders will be looking for any clues about the future policy stance of the RBA, which could influence the Australian Dollar.

Wednesday:

• Action picks up midweek with an important event:

  • Interest Rate Decision from New Zealand: A 50 basis points cut is expected, which would bring rates down to 4.75%. Expect this to have a significant impact on the New Zealand Dollar.

  • Crude Oil Inventories report later in the day could sway the energy markets.

  • In the US, we’ll also get the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which will provide deeper insights into the Fed’s recent decision-making and could drive volatility.

Thursday:

• The spotlight will be on US inflation data (CPI). Traders will likely be positioning ahead of this key number.

  • CPI (YoY) is expected to drop to 2.3%, and on a monthly basis to 0.1%. This could influence market sentiment across the board, especially for the US Dollar, equities, and commodities.

Friday:

• A busy end to the week with several major releases:

  • UK GDP expected at 0.2%, which will be important for the British Pound.

  • Canada Job Data: Watch for an expected increase in the unemployment rate to 6.7%, potentially pressuring the Canadian Dollar.

  • Another US inflation number, this time PPI (Producer Price Index), expected to drop slightly.

  • The week will wrap up with the Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, expected at 70.5, which could influence US equities.

Setups for This Week:

AUD/NZD

Primary View:

• The price is currently testing a key horizontal resistance marked with yellow, which has been in play since 2023.

• A rejection at this level will provide a sell signal as the price bounces off this long-standing resistance.

Alternative View:

• Price breaking above the yellow resistance would signal a buy, indicating a potential breakout.

USD/CHF

Primary View:

• After the non-farm payrolls data, the price managed to escape the rectangle pattern to the upside, giving a buy signal.

• The breakout marks a continuation of bullish momentum, supported by strong fundamentals.

Alternative View:

• Price dropping back inside the rectangle and breaking the blue uptrend line would be a signal to sell.

Silver (XAG/USD)

Primary View:

• The price is heading lower following a false breakout above the yellow resistance, which is marked with an orange rectangle.

• The target is set on the blue uptrend line, signaling a continuation of the bearish momentum.

Alternative View:

• A breakout above the yellow resistance again would be a signal to buy, marking a bullish reversal.