Weekly Market Commentary | 1.07 - 7.07

Monday

• German Preliminary CPI: Germany’s inflation data is expected to show a modest increase of 0.2%, which could provide insights into the broader Eurozone inflation trends.

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMIs: The manufacturing sector’s health will be under scrutiny with PMIs expected at 49.2, potentially influencing the market’s view on economic growth.

• French Parliamentary Elections: The National Rally’s narrower-than-expected victory is seen as positive for the Euro, which has been climbing higher in response.

Tuesday

• Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate: The flash estimate for the Eurozone’s CPI is anticipated at 2.5%, a critical indicator of inflation that could impact ECB policy decisions.

• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Speech: All eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he discusses economic outlooks and monetary policy, likely impacting market sentiment and the U.S. dollar.

• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings: Expected at 7.86 million, this report will provide insights into labor market conditions and potential implications for future economic growth.

Wednesday

• Australian Retail Sales: Expected to rise by 0.3%, this data will offer clues about consumer spending trends and economic health in Australia.

• U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: This precursor to the official jobs report will be closely watched for signs of labor market strength or weakness.

• Unemployment Claims: Moved from Thursday due to the holiday, this data will provide further insights into the U.S. labor market.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes: Investors will parse these minutes for hints about future monetary policy moves.

• ISM Services PMIs: A key indicator of the services sector’s health, these PMIs will be crucial in assessing the overall economic outlook.

Thursday

• Independence Day Holiday: U.S. markets will be closed, leading to lower trading volumes and potentially less volatility across global markets.

Friday

• Canadian Job Data: Employment figures from Canada will be released, providing insights into the Canadian labor market.

• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: The most anticipated report of the week, expected at 189,000, will likely drive significant market movements and influence the outlook on the U.S. economy.

Setups for This Week:

EUR/USD

Primary View

• Boost from French Elections: Euro received a significant boost, leading to a decisive bounce off the lower line of the symmetric triangle marked with black lines.

• Breakout from Descending Triangle: The price escaped from the descending triangle marked with blue lines, reinforcing positive sentiment on EUR/USD.

• Sentiment: With these movements, the sentiment on EUR/USD is positive.

Alternative View

• Breakout to Downside: Price breaking the lower black line will be an ultimate signal to sell.

EUR/CAD 

Primary View

• Inverse Head and Shoulders: The price created an inverse head and shoulders pattern marked with yellow color.

• Neckline Break: Breaking the neckline marked with black, the price now shows a buy signal.

• Current Resistance Test: The price is currently testing resistance marked with a blue line. A breakout above this resistance will be a strong buy signal.

Alternative View

• Bearish Reversal: Price bouncing off the blue line and falling below the black neckline will signal to sell.

GBP/AUD 

Primary View

• Symmetric Triangle Break: The price escaped from the symmetric triangle marked with green lines to the downside but then bounced off the key horizontal support marked with yellow.

• Triangle Reentry: Price moving back inside the triangle will signal a strong buy opportunity.

• Sentiment: The sentiment remains positive if the price reenters the triangle.

Alternative View

• Support Break: Price breaking below the yellow horizontal support will be a strong signal to sell.