Weekly Market Commentary | 10.06 – 16.06

Monday

• Monday starts quietly with no major tier one data on the calendar, allowing traders to catch their breath after a busy previous week.

Tuesday

• Tuesday begins to warm up the week with Claimant Count Change from the UK, expected at 10.2 thousand.

• Additionally, we'll see the Average Earnings Index from the UK, anticipated to be 5.7%. These data points will provide insights into the UK labor market and wage growth.

Wednesday

• Wednesday promises to be action-packed with several crucial data releases.

• First, we have CPI inflation from China, expected at 0.4%.

• The UK will release its GDP data, forecasted to be 0%, a critical indicator of the country's economic health.

• The US will also be in focus with its inflation data, projected to remain steady at 3.4% year-over-year.

• The day culminates with the US interest rate decision after the American session, where rates are expected to hold at 5.5%. The accompanying statement and Fed press conference will be closely scrutinized for future monetary policy signals.

Thursday

• Thursday will likely involve markets digesting the outcomes of Wednesday's events, but it also brings significant data.

• From Australia, we'll get job data with an employment change forecast of 30,000 and an unemployment rate expected to drop to 4%.

• The US will release its PPI data, expected at 0.1%, alongside the usual unemployment claims figures.

Friday

• The week concludes with the interest rate decision from Japan, where no change is expected.

• We'll also see the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, expected at 73, providing insights into consumer confidence and spending outlooks.

Setups for This Week:

EUR/GBP

Primary View

• The new week opens with EUR/GBP hitting new long-term lows.

• The pair has broken out to the downside from the descending triangle pattern marked with green, which signals a sell.

Alternative View

• A price move back above the green horizontal resistance would indicate a buy signal.

NZD/JPY

Primary View

• NZD/JPY has formed a head and shoulders pattern marked with yellow.

• The pair is currently hovering above the neckline marked with green. A breakout below this level will signal a sell.

Alternative View

• If the price bounces off the green support to the upside, it will signal a buy.

Gold

Primary View

• Gold has created a head and shoulders pattern marked with yellow.

• The price has already broken the neckline marked with a green line. As long as it stays below this neckline, it signals a sell.

Alternative View

• A move back above the green resistance will indicate a signal to go long.