Weekly Market Commentary | 23.09 - 29.09

Monday

• Surprisingly Active Start: Mondays are usually quiet, but not this one. We have a flood of data from major European economies, making it a pivotal day for the markets.

• PMIs in Focus: We already received PMI data from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, all of which came in below expectations. This is putting significant pressure on the Euro, which is losing ground rapidly.

• Upcoming US Data: Later today, we’re looking at manufacturing and services PMIs from the US, which could add more volatility to the market.

Tuesday

• Australia’s Interest Rate Decision: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision, with expectations that the rate will remain unchanged at 4.35%. Any deviation could lead to market surprises.

• US Consumer Confidence: The CB Consumer Confidence Index is expected at 103.5. A higher or lower reading could signal shifts in economic sentiment and influence the USD.

Wednesday

• Calm Before the Storm: Surprisingly quiet, with only a couple of key data points.

• Australian Inflation: Inflation data is expected at 2.8%. This could be crucial for the Aussie dollar, particularly following the rate decision.

• Oil Market Alert: Crude oil inventories will be released, a key indicator for oil traders that can impact prices based on supply and demand dynamics.

Thursday

• Swiss Rate Cut on the Cards: We’re expecting the Swiss National Bank to cut rates by 25 basis points to 1%. A cut could weaken the Swiss franc, impacting currency pairs.

• US GDP Data: Final GDP for the US is expected at 2.9%. This could be a key indicator of the economic health and influence the Fed’s future policy decisions.

• Central Bank Speeches: Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde are scheduled to speak, and markets will be watching closely for any hints on future monetary policy.

Friday

• Japan’s Inflation Check: Tokyo Core CPI is expected at 2%. This will be a key indicator for Japan’s economic situation, especially in terms of consumer spending and inflation control.

• Canadian GDP: Expected at 0.1%, this data point could provide insight into the Canadian economy’s growth momentum.

• US Core PCE Price Index: This is a crucial inflation indicator for the Fed, expected at 0.2%. Any deviation could influence expectations for future rate changes.

Setups for This Week:

USD/CAD

Primary View:

• The price defended horizontal resistance at 1.36, marked with blue color.

• We also bounced off the 38.2% Fibonacci level, indicating resistance. As long as we stay below these levels, sentiment remains negative.

Alternative View:

• Price climbing back above the blue resistance would be a signal to buy.

Nasdaq

Primary View:

• The price is currently bouncing off key orange horizontal resistance.

• We are above key horizontal blue support. A price breakout above the orange resistance would be a signal to buy.

Alternative View:

• Price breaking below the blue support would be a signal to sell, targeting the green uptrend line.

WTI Oil

Primary View:

• The price is bouncing off a key orange horizontal resistance after a bullish correction.

• As long as we stay below this resistance, sentiment is negative.

Alternative View:

• Price breaking above the orange resistance would be a signal to go long.