Weekly Market Commentary | 30.10 – 5.11
30 October 2023
Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!
Monday
- Australia kicked things off with a pleasant surprise: retail sales surged to 0.9%, effortlessly beating the 0.3% expectations.
- We're in for a European double treat with both Germany and Spain releasing inflation data. The buzz is that Germany might reveal a 0.2% rise for the month.
- Not to be outdone, Germany will also grace us with its GDP figures.
Tuesday
- China sets the pace with manufacturing PMIs and all eyes on figures crossing the 50 mark.
- Bank of Japan takes the stage with a trifecta: a press conference, rate decision, and outlook report. Market whispers? Rates to remain as is.
- Eurozone throws the hat into the ring with its CPI flash estimate for the year. Anticipation builds at 3.1%, with the previous 4.3% echoing in the background.
- The US isn’t far behind with their CB consumer confidence numbers.
- The curtain closes with New Zealand's job data, where the unemployment rate might climb from 3.6% to 3.9%.
Wednesday
- European markets shall hit the snooze button today.
- ADP non-farm employment change from the US is the talk of the town, expected at a solid 141,000.
- ISM manufacturing PMIs are projected at 49, while JOLTS job openings might be in the ballpark of 9.27 million.
- The day's grand finale? The US interest rate decision. Word around is that the 5.5% rate will stay steady.
Thursday
- Switzerland begins the show with its CPI, a modest 0.1% expectation.
- Bank of England steps up, likely keeping its rate untouched at 5.25%.
- As always, the US ends the act with its recurring unemployment claims, likely staying put at 210,000.
Friday
- It's the first Friday of the month, and the NFP buzz is real. The last figures were a sight, and the forecast for non-farm payrolls stands at 182,000.
- Canada chimes in with its job data.
- The grand curtain call for the week: ISM services PMIs from the US, with projections pointing to 53.2.
Setups for This Week:
USDJPY
Primary View:
- The currency pair has dipped below the significant 150 benchmark, a pivotal psychological turning point.
- There's a false breakout in play, highlighted in yellow.
- With the price breaching one uptrend line and knocking on the door of another, the vibe remains bleak. All bets are off if we linger below the designated blue line.
Alternative View:
- Should we witness the price making a comeback above the 150 mark, it will be our cue to buy.
Dow Jones
Primary View:
- Last week, Dow Jones punched through an absolutely crucial horizontal support, in tandem with the 38.2 Fibonacci (grey).
- This breach serves to solidify and endorse the sell signal on Dow Jones.
Alternative View:
- Rebounding above the 38.2 Fibonacci? That's the market's way of flashing a green light to buy.
Gold
Primary View:
- Gold's shimmering performance persists post its grand exit from the flag formation, outlined by black lines.
- Riding the upswing wave, all eyes are on the prize at the 2070 USD/oz level, marked in blue.
Alternative View:
- As enthralling as the current surge might seem, it's rather extended. A bearish breather or correction wouldn't be out of place. However, only a dip below the orange fortress would ring the sell alarms.
