Weekly Market Commentary | 24.06 – 30.06

Monday

• Quiet Start: The week begins on a calm note, with the highlight being Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speech during the American session. Traders will be keen to see if his comments impact the Canadian dollar, especially in light of recent market movements.

Tuesday

• Canadian Inflation: All eyes will be on Canada as inflation data is released, expected to drop to 0.3% on a monthly basis. This figure will be crucial for the Canadian dollar’s direction.

• US CB Consumer Confidence: Later in the day, the U.S. will release CB Consumer Confidence figures, forecasted at 100.2. This data will provide insights into consumer sentiment and economic outlook.

Wednesday

• Australian Inflation: During the Asian session, Australia will release its inflation report, expected to slightly decrease from 3.6% to 3.5% year-over-year. This will be a key indicator for the Australian dollar and the broader market sentiment.

Thursday

• US GDP: The final GDP figure for the U.S. is anticipated at 1.4%. This will be closely watched as it reflects the overall economic health.

• Unemployment Claims: Weekly unemployment claims are expected to be around 240,000, providing insight into the labor market's strength.

• Pending Home Sales: Data on pending home sales will also be released, offering a glimpse into the housing market's momentum.

Friday

• Canadian GDP: Canada’s GDP figure is expected at 0.3%, which will be a key driver for the Canadian dollar.

• Tokyo Core CPI: Japan will release Tokyo’s core CPI, projected at 2%, which is crucial for the Japanese yen.

• US Core PCE Price Index: The U.S. will also release its core PCE price index, anticipated at 0.1%, a vital indicator of inflation.

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: The revised consumer sentiment index is expected at 65.9, rounding off the week with insights into consumer confidence.

Setups for This Week:

GBP/CHF

Primary View:

• The price is closely following technical analysis patterns.

• A flag pattern resulted in a breakout to the downside.

• Currently forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with an orange neckline, expecting a breakout above the resistance to climb higher.

Alternative View:

• Price bounces off the orange resistance and declines, signaling a sell.

EUR/USD

Primary View:

• The price is testing a crucial support level, the lower line of a long-term triangle and a horizontal support marked in orange.

• A double bottom has formed, and the price is currently rising.

• As long as it stays above the orange support, buyers have a chance.

Alternative View:

• Price breaks below the orange support, signaling a sell.

Platinum

Primary View:

• After a few days of correction, the price is testing a critical horizontal resistance marked in orange.

• The sentiment remains negative as long as the price stays below this level.

Alternative View:

• Price climbs above the orange resistance, signaling a buy.