Weekly Market Commentary | 26.08 - 01.09

Monday:

- German Ifo Business Climate: Expected at 86. The number will provide insights into the health of the German economy and business sentiment across Europe’s largest economy.

- US Durable Goods Orders: Expected to rise by 4%. This piece of data will be closely watched to gauge the strength of the US manufacturing sector and consumer demand for durable goods.

Tuesday:

- CB Consumer Confidence (US): Expected at 100.2. This is a key indicator of consumer sentiment and spending that drives the majority of economic activity in the US. The markets will be looking for signs of how confident consumers are in the current economic climate.

Wednesday:

- A surprisingly quiet day on the economic front - but still bringing some important releases:

  - Australian Inflation (CPI): Expected at 3.4%. This figure will be crucial for understanding inflationary pressures in Australia, and could impact the Aussie Dollar.

  - Crude Oil Inventories (US): A vital data point for oil traders, indicating supply levels and influencing oil prices.

Thursday:

- A busier day with several key data points:

  - German Preliminary CPI: Expected at 0.0%. This figure will give an early indication of inflation trends in Germany, influencing the Euro's movements.

  - US Preliminary GDP: Expected to grow by 2.8%. This will be a major focus for markets, providing a snapshot of the US economy’s performance.

  - US Unemployment Claims: Expected at 234,000. This regular release will provide a fresh look at the US labour market's health.

Friday:

- A day packed with multiple key releases:

  - Tokyo Core CPI (Japan): Expected at 2.2%. The figure will offer a look into inflation trends in Japan that could affect the Yen.

  - Eurozone Inflation (CPI Flash Estimate): Expected at 2.2%. A critical number for the Euro, as it will influence the ECB policy expectations.

  - Canadian GDP: Expected to rise by 0.1%. The GDP will provide insights into the economic growth of Canada, and thus impacting the Canadian Dollar.

  - US Core PCE Price Index: Expected at 0.2%. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be closely scrutinized for any signs of persistent inflationary pressures.

Setups for This Week:

USDCAD

Primary View:

• The price has experienced three consecutive weeks of decline.

• On the weekly chart, the price is currently approaching a long-term uptrend line, suggesting a potential opportunity for a bullish bounce.

Alternative View:

• If the price breaks below the black uptrend line, it would provide a strong signal to sell.

GBPCHF

Primary View:

• The price is bouncing off a key horizontal resistance level, marked with green.

• It has also broken out of a flag pattern (red). As long as the price remains below the green resistance, the sentiment stays negative.

Alternative View:

• A break above the green resistance would signal a buying opportunity.

CHFJPY

Primary View:

• The price recently bounced off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and is currently targeting the black uptrend line, keeping the sentiment negative.

Alternative View:

• A move above the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the yellow area would trigger a buy signal.