Weekly Market Commentary | 28.08 – 03.09

28 August 2023

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.

Monday:

Retail Sales (Australia): Pleasantly surprising, the number came in at 0.5% instead of the expected 0.2%. This has made the Australian Dollar the current frontrunner, emerging as the strongest currency in the mix today.
UK Market Status: The UK market is closed due to a bank holiday.

Tuesday:

CB Consumer Confidence (US): Stay tuned for this release, detailing the confidence level of average consumers and their spending and saving tendencies.
JOLTS Job Openings (US): This number is eagerly anticipated and projected to see an increase, with expectations set at 9.7 million, as opposed to the previous 9.58 million.

Wednesday:

Inflation (Australia): All eyes will be on Australia's inflation number, predicted to drop from 5.4% to 5.2%.
Inflation (Germany): Germany is set to release its inflation number, with expectations pegged at a 0.3% rise.
Spanish Flash CPI: Spain is also on the radar with its CPI expected to hit 2.5%.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (US): This crucial number is projected to be 201,000.
Prelim GDP (US): Another significant release from the US, with the GDP forecasts coming in at 2.4%.

Thursday:

Manufacturing PMI (China): The predictions indicate a slightly bearish number, coming in at 49.1.
CPI Flash Estimate (Eurozone): The CPI is projected at 5.1%, showing a small drop from the previous 5.3%.
Core PCE Price Index (US): Expected at 0.2%.
Unemployment Claims (US): Forecasts suggest a figure of 236,000.

Friday:

Non-Farm Payrolls (US): A significant day for the US, with the NFP projections at 169,000.
Unemployment Rate (US): Expected to hold steady at 3.5%.
Inflation (Switzerland): Forecasts predict an inflation rate of 0.2%.
GDP (Canada): Predictions are slightly bearish, with an expected dip to -0.2%.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (US): Another highly awaited number from the US - the ISM Manufacturing PMI - is projected at 46.9.

Setups for This Week:

EURUSD
Primary View:

Closed last week on a bearish note, settling around monthly lows.
A triple top formation has been identified from a technical standpoint.
The neckline of the triple top formation has been broken, triggering a sell signal.

Alternative View:

There is potential for a false breakout.
If the price climbs back above the neckline, it will act as a substantial signal to buy.

GBPCHF
Primary View:

The currency pair is still oscillating within a protracted sideways trend.
The ongoing struggle is evident at the horizontal support level of 1.108, indicated by the green line.
Observe an inability to push higher establishing a local horizontal resistance at 1.124, denoted with an orange marker.
Breaking above the orange resistance will usher in a buy signal.

Alternative View:

A breach of the green horizontal support will activate a pivotal, long-term sell signal.

AUDJPY
Primary View:

Over the recent months, the price trajectory has been contained within a wedge pattern, outlined by the red lines.
The wedge seems poised to culminate with an upward breakout.
This bullish outlook is reinforced by a bounce off the long-term uptrend line (black), and the position of the price above the horizontal support of 92.7, highlighted in yellow.

Alternative View:

Should the price dive below the yellow horizontal support, it will sound the alarm for a key sell signal.